Week 17 Prediction: Must Win For Oakland Raiders vs San Diego Chargers
Saturday, December 31, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
Analysis:
The Oakland Raiders must feel hopeful about the fact their bitter rival Denver Broncos took two massive shellacking lately but first, they need to take care of business themselves when they host the AFC West rival San Diego Chargers on Sunday. Oakland, which has lost three of four at home, kept its playoff hopes alive when it ended a three-game losing streak with an overtime win at Kansas City in Week 16.
It now must defeat San Diego and have the Chiefs knock off the Denver Broncos to capture the division title. The Raiders also can clinch a wild-card berth with a victory, a loss by Cincinnati and either a win by the New York Jets or a loss by Tennessee. The Chargers saw their postseason chances end last week when their three-game winning streak was halted in Detroit. They look to end a three-game skid against Oakland and avoid their first sub-.500 season since 2003.
Ending a nine-year playoff drought would lift the spirits of a Raiders organization that has dealt with the death of legendary owner Al Davis and an injury to starting quarterback Jason Campbell this season. Carson Palmer was acquired in a trade with Cincinnati back in October to suppress the feeling of loss when Campbell went down, and led the team to a 24-17 win over the Chargers in San Diego on Nov. 10.
Palmer passed for 299 yards with a pair of touchdown strikes and an interception in that game, while running back Michael Bush was the workhorse with 30 carries for 157 yards and a touchdown.
Bush carried the load again in Saturday's win over Kansas City, compiling 70 yards on 23 carries in a poor showing from both offenses. Palmer was picked off twice, but rebounded to lead his team into scoring range with a 53-yard passing play to Darrius Heyward-Bey on the first play of overtime. Kicker Sebastian Janikowski then nailed a 36-yard field goal 2:13 into the extra period to keep Oakland's fortunes alive.
San Diego was eliminated from postseason consideration with a 38-10 loss at the hands of the Detroit Lions last Saturday. The Chargers' hopes were entering Ford Field on a three-game winning streak after losing the previous six games, but it was not to be following a rough offensive display.
The seat under head coach Norv Turner went up a few degrees with the loss as quarterback Philip Rivers reverted back to his turnover-prone ways. Rivers was interception-free in the previous four games before being picked off twice in Detroit, one of which was returned four yards for a touchdown by Lions defensive end Cliff Avril.
The Chargers will miss the playoffs for a second year in a row after entering the postseason tournament five times in a span of six seasons. The last time they finished with a record below .500 was a 4-12 mark back in 2003 under then- head coach Marty Schottenheimer.
Oakland has a 57-44-2 record in its all-time regular-season series with San Diego and has now bested the Chargers three straight times after the above- mentioned win at Qualcomm Stadium back in November.
The Raiders registered a home-and-home sweep of San Diego in 2010, following up a 35-27 home victory during Week 5 of last season with a 28-13 triumph later in the year, but the Chargers had topped Oakland 13 consecutive times prior to those two results. San Diego took both 2009 meetings between the clubs, posting a 24-20 decision at the Coliseum in that year's season opener and completing the sweep with a 24-16 home verdict.
The Raiders will be attempting to defeat San Diego four straight times for the first time since taking each matchup between the 2000 and 2001 campaigns.
These two longtime rivals have faced off just once in the postseason since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, with Oakland claiming a 34-27 road win in the 1980 AFC Championship.
Turner, who served in the same capacity with the Raiders from 2004-05, owns a 7-4 overall record against his former employer and is 6-3 versus Oakland since taking over in San Diego in 2007. Hue Jackson won his only previous encounter with both the Chargers and Turner as a head man when the Raiders prevailed in Week 10.
Time & Venue:
- 4:15 PM ET, Sunday, January 1, 2012. O.co Coliseum, Oakland, California
Last Week's results:
- San Diego Chargers (+1.5) loses to host Detroit Lions 38-10.
- Oakland Raiders (+1) beats host Kansas City Chiefs 16-13.
Last week's ATS:
- Underdog San Diego Chargers (7-8) loses and does not cover
- Underdog Oakland Raiders (8-7) wins outright.
NFL Football Odds: Raiders -3; O/U: 48.5.
Playoff Picture:
- San Diego Chargers: Eliminated (week 16)
- Oakland Raiders: Oakland clinches the AFC West with a win + DEN loss. Oakland clinches a wild-card spot with either of the following scenarios: 1) OAK win + CIN loss + TEN loss; 2) OAK win + CIN loss + NYJ win. COMMENT: If the Jets, Bengals, Raiders, and Titans all finish 9-7, which would assume a Broncos win, the Raiders would get the No. 6 playoff seed because of a superior strength of victory.
San Diego had won 13 straight meetings with the Raiders prior to its current slide. It has captured six of its last seven games in Oakland. However, the Chargers have lost four of their last five overall on the road. Philip Rivers, who shares the league lead with a career-high 19 interceptions, needs 186 passing yards to become the fifth player in NFL history to record at least 4,500 yards in consecutive seasons. The others are Dan Fouts, Warren Moon, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees.
Oakland, which held a lead with two minutes remaining against Detroit on Dec. 18 only to lose, nearly had it happen a second straight time last Saturday as Kansas City tied the game with 62 seconds remaining and lined up for a winning field-goal attempt on the final play of the fourth quarter. But Richard Seymour blocked his second kick of the day, and Janikowski booted the winner in OT.
While running back Darren McFadden is likely to miss his ninth straight game, receiver Jacoby Ford could return from his foot injury as he participated in practice on a limited basis Wednesday. Ford suffered his injury in Oakland's 24-17 win at San Diego on Nov. 10. Cornerback Stanford Routt is likely to be targeted by Rivers as he has been called for pass interference or holding seven times in the last two games.
WR Malcolm Floyd (58 receptions, 4 TD) has recorded 96 and 95 receiving yards, respectively, in each of his last two games and has scored in back-to-back contests. He also owns three touchdowns over the past four games and wasn't healthy enough to face Oakland the first time.
The Chargers could have used him that day, but now he's back at full strength for a Chargers' offense that is sixth in passing yards, total yards and points scored. Tight end Antonio Gates (59 receptions, 6 TD), who also passed Charlie Joiner for the Chargers' all- time record in receptions in the game against the Lions, will try to help his team extend an NFL record to eight consecutive seasons of scoring at least 400 points.
The Raiders' defense must stop RB Ryan Mathews from getting into any sort of a rhythm if they have any plans on making it to the postseason. They also have to remember that even though Rivers had a lousy day last week, he's still a proven gunslinger and can pass his team into the win column on any given week. LB Kamerion Wimbley, Seymour and DT Tommy Kelly must disrupt Rivers' timing and confidence, and Oakland hopes poor tackling doesn't turn out to be an issue.
The turnover battle usually decides the outcome of football games. The Chargers are 4-0 this year when taking the ball away more than they turn it over this season, while Palmer has thrown 15 interceptions on the year and has six in the past three weeks.
The Raiders have won 10 of their last 12 divisional games.
Oakland's Michael Bush is 89 yards away from becoming the 11th running back in franchise history to gain 1,000 in a season.
Chargers safety Eric Weddle is tied for the league lead with seven interceptions.
Oakland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Diego
Oakland is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against San Diego
Oakland is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
San Diego is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
San Diego is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
San Diego is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games
Oakland came out on top against the Chiefs last week even though it was troublesome in stopping the run. The Raiders need to play better on defense, and their struggles on that side will ultimately cost them from ending a strenuous playoff drought at the hands of the rival Chargers. When a team is no better than 25th in the league against the pass, rush, yards allowed and points allowed, it's tough to make it to the postseason.
Jackson said Davis told him before he passed that this team "will win it in the end." That will turn out to be far from the truth, as the Chargers probably feel that if they can't throw their hat in the playoff ring, then they won't let the Raiders do so either. Misery enjoys company, and San Diego will relish in Oakland's demise in the season finale.
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NFL Football Pick: Take Chargers.
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antonio gates - carson palmer - cliff avril - darren mcfadden - darrius heyward-bey - detroit lions - drew brees - eric weddle - ford field - hue jackson
