Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
Sunday, September 26, 2010
by Aengus Moorehead
Last week’s result: Atlanta (-6.5) beats visiting Arizona 41-7. New Orleans (-5.5) beats host San Francisco 25-22
Last week against the Spread: Atlanta covers; New Orleans wins but does not cover.
Analysis: With all due respect to the unbeaten Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the NFC South is expected to come down to a battle between New Orleans and Atlanta this year. The Saints (2-0) have a slight head start on their longtime rivals, but the Falcons (1-1) are coming in hot after a blowout 41-7 victory over Arizona. The first head-to-head matchup and the first division game for both teams this season will set the tone for the rest of the race.
The Saints' high-flying offense, which has led the NFL in yardage for three of the past four seasons, has been grounded a bit this year. They rank 21st in the league through two weeks at 19.5 points per game, and now they'll be without dynamic tailback Reggie Bush for the next six weeks or more. The New Orleans Saints' offense hasn't been bad and QB Drew Brees has been accurate, and they haven't turned the ball over once this year. But they've been forced to settle for a lot of underneath throws. We'll find out soon if that's a defensive blueprint that will work for all Saints opponents or if it's just a result of the quality of Minnesota and San Francisco's defensive fronts.
After being held to nine points in an overtime loss at Pittsburgh in Week 1, the Atlanta Falcons made a point to re-establish their bread-and-butter run game in Week 2. They ran for 221 yards against Arizona, with backup Jason Snelling doing the most damage after both Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood went down with injuries. Turner is expected to be fine with his groin injury, though Norwood was placed on injured reserve with a knee injury. The Saints defense has struggled against the run, most recently against the 49ers' Frank Gore, who gained 168 yards from scrimmage and scored twice Monday night. They'll try to prevent Atlanta from establishing the run this time around.
New Orleans was an 11-point favorite when it defeated Atlanta 35-27 in the teams’ meeting at the Superdome last season. Has that much changed between now and then to justify such a drastic shift in public opinion? Not a chance.
The Saints are putting the Super Bowl hangover fears to rest this year, having survived two intense battles against Minnesota and San Francisco in the first two weeks. This is the first time in franchise history that New Orleans has started back-to-back seasons with a 2-0 record. The Saints haven't looked as unstoppable as they did for most of last year, with the offense struggling to convert third downs and the defense giving up too many long drives at San Francisco last week. But they've survived so far by winning the turnover battle 5-0 over the two-week span.
Either they're due for a cleaner, more dominant victory, or they're due for their first loss. Coming off the short week certainly won't help. Atlanta, meanwhile, looms as the team most poised to take over the Saints' throne in the NFC South. The Falcons are reminiscent in many ways of the 2009 Saints, a team coming together with a young group of offensive talent and some key additions on defense, trying to get past that 9-10-win hump. A win in the Superdome would be a huge statement for them. Take Saints.
Be a player and bet on Atlanta at New Orleans (-4.5) at Bodog Sportsbook
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atlanta falcons - drew brees - jason snelling - jerious norwood - michael turner - new orleans saints - reggie bush - super bowl - superdome - tampa bay buccaneers
